DKC

Affirming at less than .04% chance. He is in control, appears healthy, and well-protected.

Affirming at less than .05% chance. The Junta was in retreat before the earthquake, and there are still aftershocks. I don't see how anyone could pull together an election in this situation within 2.5 months.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/central-myanmar-shaken-new-quake-biggest-aftershocks-march-120757777

Moving up 2 points on each of the bins related to Venezuela invading attacking. Based on this from Boz's, Latin American Risk Report (on substack). The reasoning appears sound to me.

FTA:

A month after sending a well armed naval patrol boat deep into Guyana’s territorial waters to harass an Exxon oil exploration ship, Venezuela accused Guyana of planning a “false flag” attack against an Exxon oil platform to something something. The Maduro regime statements lack credibility and logic, which is why I don’t entertain the details of their theories too much.

Is Venezuela considering its own attack and trying to build a deception operation ahead of time? Does Venezuela have some sort of intelligence that they are concerned about? Are they just paranoid and ranting to get attention? I lean toward the paranoid ranting theory for this particular set of comments.

The fact that this is the third time inside of a month that the Venezuela-Guyana issue has been raised demonstrates that it is well back on their radar. Escalation coming from Venezuela remains an option. They may claim preemption is necessary. Further, Maduro cancelled a planned trip to Honduras this week, citing threats against him. They are in a paranoid mood.

This is happening in parallel with the regional elections in Venezuela and a collapse in global oil prices, which will make Venezuelan oil that much less profitable, even as new sanctions target that industry.

Sure, Maduro could just steal these elections the way he stole the elections last year. But he really doesn’t want to do that. He wants to win the elections. Or, at least, make the elections close and competitive enough so the stealing isn’t so obvious. If the elections happen as the economy is crashing, a backup plan could be some sort of imaginary foreign conflict. It hasn’t worked in the past for Maduro, but they are desperate.

Affirming. It doesn't appear to me there will be an agreement. Putin is toying with Trump. IMHO.  But if it does happen, I think he will break it quickly (I believe the base rate suggests this) or it will stick.

I'm wondering if Trump's tariffs will improve relations amongst European countries. A rally-around-the-region sort of thing. Which could include the German-Ukrainian relationship.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-tariffs-shift-shows-benefits-eu-unity-says-german-chancellor-designate-2025-04-09/

FTA: BERLIN, April 9 (Reuters) - Friedrich Merz, Germany's likely next chancellor, said U.S. President Donald Trump's pause of tariffs for 90 days was evidence of a united European approach to trade having a positive effect, and called for tariff-free U.S.-EU trade.

"Europeans are determined to defend ourselves and this example shows that unity helps most of all," he told TV show RTL Direkt in an interview following his conservative bloc's sealing of a coalition deal with the Social Democrats.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/10/tariffs-cars-germany-00283507

Moving up a couple of points based on Trump's tariffs. Targeting African countries with tariffs leaves them ripe for the picking by China. IMHO

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/407638/trump-tariffs-china-trade

FTA:

“China will capitalize on the opportunity created and build more partnerships with aggrieved parties,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. “The US is dismantling the global trade order that has been established for decades, and there is no better time for China to jump in and demonstrate the alternative. I suspect we will see it in China’s diplomatic playbook across the globe.”

I agree with @Rene that with Trump pulling away from Europe, Germany may feel more defenseless.

And here is a bit of evidence of that. Moving a few points higher on the two highest bins based on:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdjyjlkewr2o

FTA: 

Germany's military, the Bundeswehr, recently got the all-clear for a massive increase in investment after parliament voted to exempt defence spending from strict rules on debt.

The country's top general has told the BBC the cash boost is urgently needed because he believes Russian aggression won't stop at Ukraine.

"We are threatened by Russia. We are threatened by Putin. We have to do whatever is needed to deter that," Gen Carsten Breuer says. He warns that Nato should be braced for a possible attack in as little as four years.

"It's not about how much time I need, it's much more about how much time Putin gives us to be prepared," the defence chief says bluntly. "And the sooner we are prepared the better."

Moving up a few points on "Other".

This is from Feb. but I could see Russia sending in Africa Corps troops to support Russian energy investments. Not moving higher because of shrinking timeline, and Russia continues to need a military base that will give it access to Africa. Putin is working on it, but unclear if it is there yet.

https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/another-african-country-looks-to-embrace-russias-energy-deal/17cnrwd

FTA:

As Moscow continues to reiterate its commitment to deepening economic ties in Africa, more African nations are exploring the feasibility of Russian partnerships in their energy sectors.

These partnerships often involve oil and gas exploration, infrastructure development, and technology transfer, areas in which Russia has expressed a strong willingness to collaborate.

For Equatorial Guinea, Russia’s expansion into Africa presents an opportunity to bolster its energy sector.

Equatorial Guinea’s interest in Russia’s energy and mineral investment was highlighted by the Deputy Minister for Hydrocarbons and Mining Domingo Mba Esono during a conference on cooperation between both countries.

He noted that Equatorial Guinea is ready to cooperate with Russia, providing what resources it has available to it.

"Our ministry welcomes the entry of Russian companies into our market and, for its part, is ready to provide them with the necessary information," the minister stated.

Mba Esono also mentioned that Russian businesses are currently indicating more interest in Equatorial Guinea and recalled the USSR's active collaborations in several areas.

During the meeting as reported by Sputnik, the minister proceeded to discuss the plans of Russian companies to conduct geological exploration work to find mineral deposits, as well as the projects of the Russian state-owned multinational energy corporation Gazprom in Equatorial Guinea.

And on Putin negotiations on Syria:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/04/03/secretive-energy-supplies-and-harboring-assad-inside-the-kremlins-balancing-act-with-syrias-new-leaders-a88555

FTA:

The Kremlin is capitalizing on Syria’s energy crisis in an effort to keep its military bases in the country, even as it refuses to hand over fugitive former dictator Bashar al-Assad to the new government.

...

Moscow has already begun oil and gas shipments to Syria in an effort to maintain its military presence there, three sources familiar with the Kremlin’s foreign policy told The Moscow Times, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The deliveries were launched in February at President Vladimir Putin’s instruction, with efforts made to keep the shipments discreet, the sources said. 

“Support for the Syrian people — who we regard as our friends — is indeed underway, and we’ve been instructed to proceed quietly,” a source in Russia’s oil and gas industry told The Moscow Times.

With all due respect, I think Rubio was projecting his own support for NATO instead of Trump's.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/rubio-tries-to-reassure-wary-nato-allies-of-u-s-commitment-as-trump-sends-mixed-signals

And Trump left one country off his tariff list.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdjl3k1we8vo

I think Putin would see this as an excellent time to break NATO. He just needs to invade a small NATO country and wait for the chaos to ensue.