-0.657042
Relative Brier Score
383
Forecasts
163
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 13 | 34 | 510 | 383 | 539 |
Comments | 2 | 3 | 107 | 75 | 130 |
Questions Forecasted | 13 | 27 | 67 | 52 | 68 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 9 | 23 | 246 | 163 | 312 |
Definitions |
Rethinking much further down. The escalation is psychologically too significant and not a lot of time left to overcome either sides lack of interest in the ceasefire.
Affirming. None of it is any longer realistic within the time left.
Affirming hard < 0.5%
We are now 10 months away from the date cut-off. Nothing yet that suggest that it is appreciably likely.
Affirming. Nothing new to add for now.
Slight update for passage of time. All in all, sounds very unlikely today but the time frame is long.
Getting closer to the crowd on Moldova but still can't discount the low threshold for the resolution there: An outbreak of hostilities between Moldova official government and Transnistria followed by Russia sending some troops in support. Georgia and Armenia are out of question by now while Kazakhstan is only a very remote possibility.
6 months left, no news and no indication that the news is imminent. The best I can do given the situation is to time-decay by ~5% every month while watching for relevant news.
One more point down to the passage of time and the fact that if the junta really wanted it, it could have faked an election already.