RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 17, 2025 01:06AM
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	2%	9%	-7%	-1%
Bolivia	12%	12%	+0%	-2%
Ecuador	5%	9%	-4%	-1%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 17, 2025 01:12AM
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	5%	12%	-7%	-2%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	94%	85%	+9%	+2%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	1%	3%	-2%	-1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 17, 2025 02:07AM
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 17, 2025 05:09AM
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	10%	+0%	-2%
No	90%	90%	+0%	+2%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 09:26PM
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	6%	-5%	-2%
No	99%	94%	+5%	+2%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 08:14PM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	5%	-1%	-3%
No	96%	95%	+1%	+3%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 08:51PM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	10%	-2%	-3%
No	92%	90%	+2%	+3%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 7, 2025 05:35PM
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	7%	7%	+0%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 02:04PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	2%	+2%	+0%
No	96%	98%	-2%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 02:07PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

DimaKlenchin

Dima Klenchin

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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season