RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 01:16AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	54%	-24%	-13%
No	70%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	46%	+24%	+13%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 03:49AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	27%	41%	-14%	-7%
No	73%	59%	+14%	+7%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 03:54AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	23%	33%	-10%	-12%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	30%	40%	-10%	-18%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2024 08:06AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Sep 10, 2024 to Mar 10, 2025	Oct 10, 2024	1%	+3%	+0%
No	96%	Sep 10, 2024 to Mar 10, 2025	Oct 10, 2024	99%	-3%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	3%	9%	-6%	-2%
Su-35 fighter jets	7%	7%	+0%	-1%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2024 05:25PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	11%	21%	-10%	-14%
More than or equal to 28%	89%	78%	+11%	+14%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2024 06:16PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	11%	+4%	-1%
No	85%	89%	-4%	+1%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	99%	96%	+3%	+1%
No	1%	4%	-3%	-1%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 03:51AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	5%	-4%	-2%
No	99%	95%	+4%	+2%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 03:52AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	0%

DimaKlenchin

Dima Klenchin

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