Confirmed previous forecast
-0.657042
Relative Brier Score
383
Forecasts
162
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 34 | 511 | 383 | 539 |
| Comments | 2 | 3 | 107 | 75 | 130 |
| Questions Forecasted | 13 | 27 | 67 | 52 | 68 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 8 | 22 | 246 | 162 | 311 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-8%)
Yes
93%
(+8%)
No
Rethinking much further down. The escalation is psychologically too significant and not a lot of time left to overcome either sides lack of interest in the ceasefire.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Affirming. None of it is any longer realistic within the time left.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Affirming hard < 0.5%
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
We are now 10 months away from the date cut-off. Nothing yet that suggest that it is appreciably likely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
31%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
65%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
4%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Affirming. Nothing new to add for now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-2%)
Yes
75%
(+2%)
No
Slight update for passage of time. All in all, sounds very unlikely today but the time frame is long.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(-7%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
0%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Getting closer to the crowd on Moldova but still can't discount the low threshold for the resolution there: An outbreak of hostilities between Moldova official government and Transnistria followed by Russia sending some troops in support. Georgia and Armenia are out of question by now while Kazakhstan is only a very remote possibility.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-7%)
Yes
70%
(+7%)
No
6 months left, no news and no indication that the news is imminent. The best I can do given the situation is to time-decay by ~5% every month while watching for relevant news.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
One more point down to the passage of time and the fact that if the junta really wanted it, it could have faked an election already.
Files