Confirmed previous forecast
-0.016544
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
124
Forecasts
108
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 34 | 491 | 124 | 804 |
| Comments | 6 | 44 | 238 | 166 | 334 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 19 | 56 | 29 | 86 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 19 | 268 | 108 | 482 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
94%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
1%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Argentina
9%
(-2%)
Bolivia
4%
(0%)
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
2%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
10%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
13%
(-2%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
75%
(+2%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
A slight tweak
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Angola
2%
(0%)
Kenya
10%
(-26%)
Ethiopia
2%
(0%)
Nigeria
Why do you think you're right?
Seems I was wrong about Ethiopia.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-1%)
Togo
20%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming for now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
24%
(-1%)
Yes
76%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Still think that there will be no announcement of the military base. Instead, a construction of a new port will start with the unspoken aim that it will then be converted to dual use over time. So now it's just updating to passage of time. Roughly 20 months left to resolution.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Same as before.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
2%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
10%
(-3%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
15%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
73%
(+3%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Influenced by @sepeskoe point that all the many crises might cause a cognitive overload with Trump, I am reducing the September bin. Point in case: There are US-RU negotiations going on right now in Istanbul but they explicitly exclude all things Ukraine.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+2%)
Yes
95%
(-2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Getting a little higher due to the markets chaos and increased volatility
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files