Confirmed previous forecast
-0.658387
Relative Brier Score
466
Forecasts
200
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 45 | 524 | 466 | 622 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 95 | 91 | 146 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 33 | 71 | 59 | 75 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 7 | 216 | 200 | 349 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
Affirming. No change in rationale.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
(0%)
Yes
34%
(0%)
No
Affirming. No change in rationale.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(+1%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
I'll put 1% on Georgia for this unlikely chain of events:
The anti-government protests in Abkhazia succeed, the winners end up alienating Russia, Georgians repeat their mistake in S. Ossetia and in the new war in Abkhazia and the Russians once again take the side of separatists.
Something like this is probably >0.5%.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
47%
(+2%)
Yes
53%
(-2%)
No
Tiny adjustment on the distance between NVDA and AAPL increasing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Affirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Affirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Affirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-3%)
Togo
30%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Lowering Togo a bit.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
27%
(0%)
Yes
73%
(0%)
No
Affirming
Files