Affirming
-0.016544
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
90
Forecasts
89
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 20 | 511 | 90 | 770 |
| Comments | 7 | 26 | 210 | 122 | 290 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 15 | 59 | 28 | 85 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 25 | 262 | 89 | 463 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
94%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
1%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(-4%)
Yes
83%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
"Plan A is to get the shooting to stop so that we can move to Plan B, phase two, which has everybody at a table, maybe not- maybe with some shuttle diplomacy, to figure out a way to permanently end this war in a way that's enduring and it respects everybody's needs and so forth. No one is saying that that second part is easy, but we can't get even to that second part until we get past the first part,"
To me, it sounds like he does not have a plan, just wishful thinking.Files
Why might you be wrong?
same as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
(0%)
Yes
79%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
To follow up on @ctsats post below. Putin did speak on this today. Different media spin it in different ways ("Putin agrees", "Putin 'agrees'", "Putin is unlikely"). Judge for yourself.
My take is that this is a polite way to say "no" without seeming obstinate. As such, I am affirming for now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
same as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-1%)
Togo
20%
(-1%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for passage of time. 9.5 months left.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
5%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
74%
(-6%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
20%
(+5%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1%
(+1%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?
Similarly to the Russia Security Risk question, I am moving to higher warmth numbers toward Ukraine due to it becoming even more of a victim due to the recent developments. 11 months to go.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
same as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
2%
(-1%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
25%
(-17%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
53%
(+3%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
20%
(+15%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
I can't find the source again but I've seen some poll across many European countries done recently and it indicated that Russian advances in Ukraine coupled with Trump's perceived hostility toward EU/NATO induced a shift toward more people viewing Russia and a military threat to their country. Shifting toward higher numbers. 11 months to go until the next report.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
same
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
(-4%)
Yes
79%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating on my expectation that Russia will refuse the 30 days ceasefire to which Ukraine has agreed. Here is Putin in June 2024, telling about Russian conditions for a ceasefire.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Putin decides to make a 180 degree turn.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
1. Ukraine military position is not yet totally collapsing. No unconditional capitulation in 2025 at least.
2. Ukraine and Russia continue to be as far apart as they have ever been.
3. Trump team's approach to mediating the settlement is the same as its approach to tariffs: demented belief in the strong-arm tactics.
4. Given the present military reality, a temporary ceasefire only benefits one side, Ukraine.
5. The resolution threshold is low: agree to something, let it last at least one day. There are certainly many scenarios where either side agrees to the ceasefire while having an intent to violate almost immediately.
Overall, I don't expect it with high probability in 2025.
Why might you be wrong?
If either Putin or Zelensky make 180 degree turn.