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Forecasted Questions

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 09:30PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 55% 21%
No 45% 79%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2024 06:39PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 1%
No 90% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 5%
No 80% 95%
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