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Forecasted Questions

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 08:09PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 8%
No 90% 92%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 08:10PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 1%
No 90% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 08:10PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 5%
No 80% 95%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 08:35PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 25% 9%
No 75% 91%
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