A lot depends on the upcoming federal election results. Will AI become a key issue, will Chinese R&D activities will be a key issue, etc. At this point, those issues are being raised but they are not uppermost in either major candidate's platform. My guess is that voters will not view Chinese AI R&D in tandem with Microsoft as being a critical issue and will not pressure either candidate to impose limitations in this area. However, I think that is a mistake - Chinese AI R&D with Microsoft really does need to have our full attention.
0.032704
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 15 |
| Comments | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-40%)
Yes
80%
(+40%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the Republican candidate wins the election, then Microsoft will face strong pressure to limit AI R&D involvement with Chinese labs, many of which are controlled by the CCCP. In that scenario MS associated Chinese AI research labs will come under increasingly intense US scrutiny. If the Democratic candidate wins the election, then MS may have more ability to continue working with Chinese AI R&D labs.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Putin is fully aware that throughout Russian history, deposed/ex heads of state have not fared well. He must stay in power if he and his family are to survive. Karma is not kind to folks like Putin.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
In all honesty, I cannot foresee anything that would push Putin out of power, short of some unexpected medical issue. Or, in the unlikely event of him being overthrown by senior Russian military personnel if the war in Ukraine continues to be stalemated.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
Yes
45%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Lots of pressure building on Israel to halt further actions. Of course, Hamas could also voluntarily halt actions and achieve the same outcome and possibly an independent state without achieving military victory over Israel. Neither side appears ready to stand down right now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Either side could run out of resources and/or the will to continue fighting in the face of international pressure to halt their actions. But for Israel, standing down leaves unsettled the issues of the West Bank, and an independent Palestinian country. For Hamas, standing down plus international pressure could produce an independent Palestinian country that includes the West Bank.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(+10%)
Yes
40%
(-10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Biden administration is emphasizing using home-grown AI as a way of lessening China's ability to engage in actions that will harm US elections, research, defense, etc. Trump has already shown that he does not look kindly on China's policies and if elected would probably be even more inclined to be wary of China's efforts to dominate AI. That wariness would probably see pressure put on US firms such as MS to limit their activities in that nation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
So much depends on which presidential candidate will be elected at the end of 2024. Really tough to predict anything in this environment.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 26, 2024 09:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
65%
Yes
Jan 26, 2024 to Feb 26, 2024
35%
No
Jan 26, 2024 to Feb 26, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
De facto, Hezbollah and the IDF are already fighting. The question is whether or not the fighting will intensify (I think that it will as fighting with Hamas winds down).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
World and UN opinion may cause Israel to focus more on figuring out what to do with a crushed Gaza, and the larger West Bank issues. Moving into another war with Hezbollah so quickly after battling Hmas may prove to be too much to undertake right now.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Neither Netanyahu/IDF nor Hamas show any signs of being willing to end hostilities. And the US and other allies continue supplying the IDF with arms, while Iran and its surrogates do the same for Hamas and Hezbollah. At one point it looked like Biden might be on the brink of facilitating an end to the war but that chimera has pretty much vanished as Hezbollah has inserted itself. Too many surrogates with too many grievances to settle.
Why might you be wrong?
If Iran's new head-of-government decides that his country needs to reengage with the west, that could undercut that country's willingness to continue supporting Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis', et al. In that scenario, Netanyahu would stand down the IDF and for the next fifteen or so years focus on establishing a 'new normal' in the aftermath of its latest war with its neighbors.