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2
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0
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm being optimistic and am also noting that there are many degrees of "habitability". For example, with the use of sufficient technology both the moon and Mars could be (more or less) colonized. Overall, it seems statistically unlikely that there aren't exoplanets out there where humans equipped with the necessary technology couldn't establish habitable bases.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The human species is fragile and requires a very specific set of conditions in order to survive. Technology can expand that envelope, but it cannot completely eliminate environmental limitations likely to exist on exoplanets. Then there is the issue of distance between Earth and exoplanets. Even though technology could possibly overcome exoplanet environmental issues, the enormous distance that humans and their technology would be required to travel in order to reach those exoplanets might make the habitability question moot. In real life Scotty can't dial up warp ten so that the Enterprise can reach a distant planet in a couple of hours.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-45%)
Yes
90%
(+45%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
With a new (extremely) pro-Israel US administration about to come into power, I cannot see a path leading to a cease fire. Israel is now talking about simply annexing the West Bank and has no motivation to cease operations in Lebanon and Gaza.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Hezbollah + Hamas + Houthis + Iran would for some unforeseen reason decide that it is their interests to cease operations, then a cease fire might emerge. However, that possibility does not appear at all likely. None of the involved parties see a cease fire as being in their best interest.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Neither Netanyahu/IDF nor Hamas show any signs of being willing to end hostilities. And the US and other allies continue supplying the IDF with arms, while Iran and its surrogates do the same for Hamas and Hezbollah. At one point it looked like Biden might be on the brink of facilitating an end to the war but that chimera has pretty much vanished as Hezbollah has inserted itself. Too many surrogates with too many grievances to settle.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Iran's new head-of-government decides that his country needs to reengage with the west, that could undercut that country's willingness to continue supporting Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis', et al. In that scenario, Netanyahu would stand down the IDF and for the next fifteen or so years focus on establishing a 'new normal' in the aftermath of its latest war with its neighbors.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Having 'flipped' Trump into being a pro-Russian megaphone, Putin will now have time to save face in Ukraine and rebuild his military while he figures out what he wants to do about rebuilding the old Russian sphere of influence.
Why might you be wrong?
Putin may feel that the time isn't quite right to reengage his less than impressive military in any more 'special operations' for the near future.