Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
2 Forecasts
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Nov 15, 2024 08:09PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 8% | +2% | -1% |
No | 90% | 92% | -2% | +1% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
2 Forecasts
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Nov 15, 2024 08:10PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 1% | +9% | +0% |
No | 90% | 99% | -9% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
5 Forecasts
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Nov 15, 2024 08:10PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 20% | 5% | +15% | +0% |
No | 80% | 95% | -15% | +0% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
1 Forecast
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Nov 15, 2024 08:35PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 25% | 9% | +16% | -2% |
No | 75% | 91% | -16% | +2% |