Confirmed previous forecast
0.458908
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 19 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 15 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-45%)
Yes
90%
(+45%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
With a new (extremely) pro-Israel US administration about to come into power, I cannot see a path leading to a cease fire. Israel is now talking about simply annexing the West Bank and has no motivation to cease operations in Lebanon and Gaza.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Hezbollah + Hamas + Houthis + Iran would for some unforeseen reason decide that it is their interests to cease operations, then a cease fire might emerge. However, that possibility does not appear at all likely. None of the involved parties see a cease fire as being in their best interest.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Neither Netanyahu/IDF nor Hamas show any signs of being willing to end hostilities. And the US and other allies continue supplying the IDF with arms, while Iran and its surrogates do the same for Hamas and Hezbollah. At one point it looked like Biden might be on the brink of facilitating an end to the war but that chimera has pretty much vanished as Hezbollah has inserted itself. Too many surrogates with too many grievances to settle.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Iran's new head-of-government decides that his country needs to reengage with the west, that could undercut that country's willingness to continue supporting Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis', et al. In that scenario, Netanyahu would stand down the IDF and for the next fifteen or so years focus on establishing a 'new normal' in the aftermath of its latest war with its neighbors.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-40%)
Yes
80%
(+40%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
A lot depends on the upcoming federal election results. Will AI become a key issue, will Chinese R&D activities will be a key issue, etc. At this point, those issues are being raised but they are not uppermost in either major candidate's platform. My guess is that voters will not view Chinese AI R&D in tandem with Microsoft as being a critical issue and will not pressure either candidate to impose limitations in this area. However, I think that is a mistake - Chinese AI R&D with Microsoft really does need to have our full attention.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the Republican candidate wins the election, then Microsoft will face strong pressure to limit AI R&D involvement with Chinese labs, many of which are controlled by the CCCP. In that scenario MS associated Chinese AI research labs will come under increasingly intense US scrutiny. If the Democratic candidate wins the election, then MS may have more ability to continue working with Chinese AI R&D labs.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Putin is fully aware that throughout Russian history, deposed/ex heads of state have not fared well. He must stay in power if he and his family are to survive. Karma is not kind to folks like Putin.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
In all honesty, I cannot foresee anything that would push Putin out of power, short of some unexpected medical issue. Or, in the unlikely event of him being overthrown by senior Russian military personnel if the war in Ukraine continues to be stalemated.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I'm being optimistic and am also noting that there are many degrees of "habitability". For example, with the use of sufficient technology both the moon and Mars could be (more or less) colonized. Overall, it seems statistically unlikely that there aren't exoplanets out there where humans equipped with the necessary technology couldn't establish habitable bases.
Why might you be wrong?
The human species is fragile and requires a very specific set of conditions in order to survive. Technology can expand that envelope, but it cannot completely eliminate environmental limitations likely to exist on exoplanets. Then there is the issue of distance between Earth and exoplanets. Even though technology could possibly overcome exoplanet environmental issues, the enormous distance that humans and their technology would be required to travel in order to reach those exoplanets might make the habitability question moot. In real life Scotty can't dial up warp ten so that the Enterprise can reach a distant planet in a couple of hours.