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Faded_Oracle

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Forecasted Questions
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By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:14PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:16PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 Dec 4, 2024 1%
No 100% Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 Dec 4, 2024 99%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:16PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 2%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 0% 3%
Kyiv 0% 1%
Odesa 0% 2%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 99% 97%
No 1% 3%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 Feb 4, 2025 0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 Dec 4, 2024 1%
No 100% Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 Dec 4, 2024 99%
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