Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 5% | -3% | 0% |
| No | 98% | 95% | +3% | 0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | Nov 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2025 | Feb 4, 2025 | 22% | -14% | -1% |
| No | 92% | Nov 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2025 | Feb 4, 2025 | 78% | +14% | +1% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | Nov 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2025 | Feb 4, 2025 | 12% | -4% | +5% |
| No | 92% | Nov 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2025 | Feb 4, 2025 | 88% | +4% | -5% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 5% | 7% | -2% | +0% |
| Armenia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Feb 4, 2025 | 4% | -3% | -1% |
| No | 99% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Feb 4, 2025 | 96% | +3% | +1% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 34% | -9% | +8% |
| No | 75% | 66% | +9% | -8% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 12% | -7% | -7% |
| No | 95% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 88% | +7% | +7% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 05:44PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 05:44PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 35% | +25% | -4% |
| No | 40% | 65% | -25% | +4% |