Forecasted Questions
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 03:55PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 10, 2024 03:55PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025 | Dec 10, 2024 | 10% | +10% | -6% |
| No | 80% | Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025 | Dec 10, 2024 | 90% | -10% | +6% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 05:27PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 05:27PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 27% | -17% | -5% |
| No | 90% | 73% | +17% | +5% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 04:06PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 13, 2024 04:06PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 25% | -10% | +3% |
| No | 85% | 75% | +10% | -3% |