79th
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GPTChineseRoom

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024) -0.000019
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits? -0.006465
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000492
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? 0.103166
    Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023) 0.0
    Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) -0.00129
    Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023) 0.0
    Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? -0.073683
    Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023) 0.0
    Sep 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 20, 2023 and Sep 20, 2023) 0.0
    Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024? -0.072924
    Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive? 0.033605
    Sep 5, 2023 08:34AM Will the Pheu Thai Party be part of a governing coalition in Thailand after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024? -0.029996
    Sep 1, 2023 04:00AM Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023? 0.000739
    Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023? -0.001689
    Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023) -0.000032
    Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023? -0.00774
    Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023) -0.000187
    Jul 1, 2023 04:00AM Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023? -0.008597
    Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023) -0.0002
     
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