Confirmed previous forecast
0.209636
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 135 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 31 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Dec 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 17, 2025 to Jan 17, 2026
90%
(0%)
No
Jan 17, 2025 to Jan 17, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Interest rates will drop, this doesn't happen usually. Very little geopol risk.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 12, 2025 07:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Dec 12, 2024 to Jun 12, 2026
95%
No
Dec 12, 2024 to Jun 12, 2026
It would be a paradigm shift in warfare and the incentives do not align.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 12, 2025 08:14AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 12, 2024 to Jun 12, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 12, 2024 to Jun 12, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-29%)
Yes
99%
(+29%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
1%
(-1%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
1%
(-2%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Time
Files