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13th
Accuracy Rank
HenriqueFontes
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Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
East Asia Security
Economic Debt
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
Quantum Computing
Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Syria
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)
-0.202244
Aug 02, 2024 05:29AM UTC
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
-0.009625
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
0.010947
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
0.014791
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
0.307271
Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM UTC
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
-0.098378
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
-0.017073
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
-0.269682
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
-0.003124
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?
0.002232
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)
-0.363981
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC
What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?
0.015013
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?
0.032687
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?
0.000008
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
-0.166315
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
0.055324
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
0.024016
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?
0.353766
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?
-0.0007
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?
0.0
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