HenriqueFontes

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? -0.00193
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024? 0.236648
    Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.202244
    Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024) 0.00016
    Aug 2, 2024 05:29AM Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025? -0.009625
    Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? 0.010947
    Jul 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? 0.014791
    Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador? 0.307271
    Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela? -0.098378
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.017073
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.269682
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? -0.003124
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024? 0.000023
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? 0.002232
    Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024) -0.363981
    Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? 0.015013
    Mar 3, 2024 05:00PM Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election? 0.032687
    Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? 0.000008
    Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation? -0.166315
    Feb 2, 2024 10:00PM When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report? 0.055324
     
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