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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 06:26PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2025
Files
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Top Forecaster - Dec 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Oracle - Silver
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 6 months in a row.
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Top Forecaster - Nov 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
Why do you think you're right?
Given China's current stance on Taiwan, which has not been violent to the point of a blockade or invasion, it is extremely unlikely any such altercations will occur within the year, unless some unpredictable event drastically changes the scenario and forces the CPC into an unexpected violent move. No changes have since happened that remotely indicate an attack on Taiwan in the following weeks.
Why might you be wrong?
In the event of an extremely relevant occurance, such as a sudden attack or rise in tensions, however unlikely, a reason for such an invasion could take form