Confirmed previous forecast
-0.596171
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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Forecasting Calendar
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
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Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
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Top Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-5%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
100%
(+5%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Given China's current stance on Taiwan, which has not been violent to the point of a blockade or invasion, it is extremely unlikely any such altercations will occur within the year, unless some unpredictable event drastically changes the scenario and forces the CPC into an unexpected violent move.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
Top Forecaster - Sep 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-70%)
Kharkiv
0%
(-10%)
Kyiv
0%
(-40%)
Odesa
Given the Russians are currently focusing the majority of their efforts and resources on the Donbass region, and on grinding the Ukranians in the Kursk region, a major ground offensive to attack Kharkiv, Kyiv and/or Odesa is very unlikely.
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New Badge
Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.