Confirmed previous forecast
-0.604372
Relative Brier Score
137
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 235 | 137 | 412 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 37 | 22 | 59 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 84 | 55 | 116 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 20 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
2%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
8%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
There may be broader support by an anti-US axis for a sanctioned Venezuela, which might empower them.
This may be enough of a thing for the leaders to distract the public while also creating a rally around the flag effect.
I don't think the Venezuelan government is going to give up the claim - this might be a bargaining chip though in negotiations.
Guyana might not openly want to cede land to Venezuela - this sets a very bad precedent while also angering the US.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 24%
0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
67%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
33%
More than or equal to 28%
Following the forecast mentioned in the question.
There is some perceived chip hoarding by governments and labs which might affect this number.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 29, 2024 11:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Aug 29, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
98%
No
Aug 29, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Seems unlikely given current political climate
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-2%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
7%
(-3%)
Georgia
1%
(-1%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Just doesn't seem like a good reason
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Strongest is Transnistria or South Ossetia flaring up again
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 4, 2024 to Feb 4, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files