Confirmed previous forecast
1.583055
Relative Brier Score
275
Forecasts
16
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 9 | 180 | 148 | 423 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 28 | 24 | 61 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 9 | 74 | 55 | 116 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Time growing short
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
96%
(0%)
No
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(-10%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(-1%)
Odesa
Why do you think you're right?
Air attacks are on the rise in Kharkiv, although this doesn't suggest that they will launch a ground offensive
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Might want to gain maximum land before a Trump presidency
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
2%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(-5%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(+5%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Following the crowd
Files