Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Jan 29, 2025 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 06:51PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 06:51PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 95% | 94% | +1% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 57% | -22% | +10% |
| No | 65% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 43% | +22% | -10% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(17 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Dec 2, 2024 | 14% | -3% | -6% |
| No | 89% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Dec 2, 2024 | 86% | +3% | +6% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 36% | -11% | -2% |
| No | 75% | 64% | +11% | +2% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 2% | +7% | -2% |
| No | 91% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 98% | -7% | +2% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2024 05:44PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 06, 2024 05:44PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 21% | -1% | -2% |
| No | 80% | 79% | +1% | +2% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2024 05:53PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 06, 2024 05:53PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 10% | -2% | -3% |
| No | 92% | 90% | +2% | +3% |