RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:15PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025	Jan 29, 2025	8%	+5%	-1%
No	87%	Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025	Jan 29, 2025	92%	-5%	+1%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:20PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
No	100%	95%	+5%	+0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:21PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	5%	+1%	+0%
No	94%	95%	-1%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:22PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	17%	25%	-8%	-3%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	29%	35%	-6%	-3%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:22PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	3%	-3%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:22PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	6%	3%	+3%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	2%	1%	+1%	+1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	2%	1%	+1%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

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