RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:17PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	11%	-9%	+0%
No	98%	89%	+9%	+0%

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:20AM UTC
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	30%	22%	+8%	+0%
More than or equal to 28%	70%	77%	-7%	+0%

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:22AM UTC
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	54%	-14%	+4%
No	60%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	46%	+14%	-4%

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:36PM UTC
(5 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	96%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	86%	+10%	+3%
No	4%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	14%	-10%	-3%

Hinterhunter