Forecasted Questions
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Jan 29, 2025 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 06:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 06:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 5% | 6% | -1% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 95% | 92% | +3% | -1% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 51% | -16% | +4% |
| No | 65% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 49% | +16% | -4% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 07:12AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 07:12AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 25% | -17% | -8% |
| No | 92% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 75% | +17% | +8% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:33AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:33AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 23% | 28% | -5% | +3% |
| No | 77% | 72% | +5% | -3% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Dec 2, 2024 | 18% | -7% | -2% |
| No | 89% | Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025 | Dec 2, 2024 | 82% | +7% | +2% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 02, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 37% | -12% | -1% |
| No | 75% | 63% | +12% | +1% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 04, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 4% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 91% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 96% | -5% | +0% |