Forecasted Questions
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2024 10:43PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2024 10:43PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 90% | Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025 | Jan 1, 2025 | 22% | +68% | +3% |
No | 10% | Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025 | Jan 1, 2025 | 78% | -68% | -3% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 5% | 9% | -4% | +0% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 1% | 6% | -5% | +0% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:15PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:15PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 13% | 21% | -8% | -3% |
No | 87% | 79% | +8% | +3% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:17PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:17PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:19PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:19PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 97% | 99% | -2% | +0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:20PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:20PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Nov 25, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +1% |
No | 100% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Nov 25, 2024 | 99% | +1% | -1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Nov 25, 2024 | 1% | +0% | -1% |
No | 99% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Nov 25, 2024 | 99% | +0% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 2% | 3% | -1% | -1% |
Kyiv | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Odesa | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |