Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 2% | 7% | -5% | +0% |
Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Georgia | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Oman | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Qatar | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:27PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:27PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Jan 25, 2025 | 4% | -1% | -3% |
No | 97% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Jan 25, 2025 | 96% | +1% | +3% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | 2% | +1% | +1% |
No | 97% | 98% | -1% | -1% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Nov 25, 2024 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Nov 25, 2024 | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Jan 25, 2025 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Nov 25, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
No | 99% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Nov 25, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |