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Hobbes

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 2% 8%
Armenia 1% 2%
Georgia 1% 4%
Kazakhstan 1% 2%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 1% 1%
Oman 2% 2%
Qatar 1% 1%
Saudi Arabia 2% 2%
Tunisia 1% 1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 09:27PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 Jan 25, 2025 5%
No 97% Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 Jan 25, 2025 95%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 Nov 25, 2024 0%
No 99% Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 Nov 25, 2024 100%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 Jan 25, 2025 0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 Nov 25, 2024 1%
No 99% Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 Nov 25, 2024 99%
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