Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:47PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:47PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +1% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:47PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:47PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 6% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 94% | +2% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:48PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:48PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025 | Dec 27, 2024 | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025 | Dec 27, 2024 | 95% | +2% | +0% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 06:17AM UTC
(19 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 06:17AM UTC
(19 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 16% | -9% | +2% |
| No | 93% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 84% | +9% | -2% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:35PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:35PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 87% | +11% | +1% |
| No | 2% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 13% | -11% | -1% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 86% | +12% | +2% |
| No | 2% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 14% | -12% | -2% |