33rd
Accuracy Rank

Hobbes

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Forecasted Questions

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 5%
No 95% 95%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 5%
No 96% 95%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:30PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Oct 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2025 Jan 25, 2025 12%
No 97% Oct 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2025 Jan 25, 2025 88%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 09:40PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 59 4% 1%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive 17% 8%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive 50% 27%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive 25% 37%
More than or equal to 90 4% 27%
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