Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +1% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 95% | +1% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:30PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:30PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Oct 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2025 | Jan 25, 2025 | 8% | -5% | -1% |
| No | 97% | Oct 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2025 | Jan 25, 2025 | 92% | +5% | +1% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025, compared to the same period one year prior?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 09:40PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 09:40PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 4% | 5% | -1% | +1% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 17% | 26% | -9% | -2% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 50% | 27% | +23% | +1% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 25% | 29% | -4% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 4% | 13% | -9% | +0% |