Forecasted Questions
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:38PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:38PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025 | Dec 27, 2024 | 8% | -3% | +2% |
No | 95% | Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025 | Dec 27, 2024 | 92% | +3% | -2% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:39PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:39PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 5% | 9% | -4% | -2% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 1% | 7% | -6% | +0% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:39PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:39PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 15% | 25% | -10% | -3% |
No | 85% | 75% | +10% | +3% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:40PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:40PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
No | 99% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:40PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:40PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:40PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:40PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 2% | 7% | -5% | +0% |
Armenia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Georgia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:41PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:41PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% |
Oman | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Qatar | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:41PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:41PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 5% | 1% | +4% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 94% | 99% | -5% | +0% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:41PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:41PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Dec 27, 2024 | 3% | +0% | +0% |
No | 97% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Dec 27, 2024 | 97% | +0% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 09:41PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 09:41PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |