RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2023 01:34PM UTC
(12 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	7%	9%	-2%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	9%	6%	+3%	-11%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 12:16AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	8%	+72%	-46%
No	20%	92%	-72%	+46%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 29, 2024 01:31AM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	89%	2%	+87%	-6%
No	11%	98%	-87%	+6%

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	26%	97%	-71%	+1%
No	74%	3%	+71%	-1%

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