RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2023 01:34PM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	7%	9%	-2%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	9%	7%	+2%	-11%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 12:16AM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	21%	+59%	-32%
No	20%	79%	-59%	+32%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 29, 2024 01:31AM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	89%	2%	+87%	-6%
No	11%	98%	-87%	+6%

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	26%	96%	-70%	+1%
No	74%	4%	+70%	-1%

I230294