RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

You quit this question on Jun 9, 2024 08:46PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	17%	5%	+12%	-6%
No	83%	95%	-12%	+6%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 24, 2024 06:17PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 19, 2024 07:25PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

You quit this question on Jul 24, 2024 06:17PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 24, 2024 06:17PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+1%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

You quit this question on Aug 18, 2024 08:37PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 18, 2024 08:29PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2024 03:30AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	0%	6%	-6%	-9%
More than or equal to 28%	100%	92%	+8%	+7%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

You quit this question on Oct 26, 2024 11:49PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2024 03:39AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	2%	1%	+1%	+1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2024 03:41AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

As of Oct 31, 2024 09:51PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2024 03:42AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Oct 10, 2024 to Apr 10, 2025	Nov 10, 2024	4%	+2%	+1%
No	94%	Oct 10, 2024 to Apr 10, 2025	Nov 10, 2024	96%	-2%	-1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

You quit this question on Oct 26, 2024 11:50PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Io-Aurelius

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