Io-Aurelius

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Relative Brier Score
138600123456
Questions Forecasted

9

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 416 9 439
Comments 0 0 82 8 93
Questions Forecasted 0 0 43 6 46
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 32 1 35
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

FFIF. This is a pretty specific question and specific questions tend to be unlikely to happen. But high demand + specific candidates already being proposed make it more likely.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

no time to write!

Files
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Io-Aurelius
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Io-Aurelius
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4%
Implantable Devices
36%
Environmental Sensors
59%
Personal Electronics
1%
Advanced Computing
Why do you think you're right?

Demand across a broad set of use-cases --> more unique devices. 

- Reasons for such demand: desire to personalize, large market and many sub-niches, varied and important operating environments... 


Personal electronics and environmental sensors are clear favorites. More weight on personal electronics because I have a prior against environmental sensors (e.g. for measuring sunlight) commercially benefitting from biological components.


Different from @DimaKlenchin at least in part because diabetes trackers fall into personal electronics in my head and not environmental sensors. 

Massive error bars on forecast. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

I'm forecasting for a decade away while we're going through the most volatile time-period in human history so far. Also I don't have a good sense of how these categories are operationalized. *shrugs* 

Files
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Io-Aurelius
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Jan 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
I'm following crowd out of humility, but I don't think DeepSeek v3 massively lowers Nvidia's importance; training the initial foundation model for deep seek (600b parameters!) required massive amounts of specialized hardware even if much of the intelligence was able to be condensed into a smaller model.
Files
Why might you be wrong?

.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

tm

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Why might you be wrong?

tm

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

tm

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

larger gap

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Why might you be wrong?

.

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New Prediction
Io-Aurelius
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Io-Aurelius
made their 18th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100% (+42%)
Yes
Jan 12, 2025 to Jul 12, 2025
0% (-42%)
No
Jan 12, 2025 to Jul 12, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

.

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Files
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