RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

You quit this question on Jun 9, 2024 08:46PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	17%	5%	+12%	-6%
No	83%	95%	-12%	+6%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 24, 2024 06:17PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 19, 2024 07:25PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

You quit this question on Jul 24, 2024 06:17PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 24, 2024 06:17PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+1%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

You quit this question on Aug 18, 2024 08:37PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 18, 2024 08:29PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

You quit this question on Oct 26, 2024 11:49PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2024 03:39AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

You quit this question on Oct 26, 2024 11:50PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2024 04:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	97%	+3%	+0%
No	0%	3%	-3%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
48 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2024 10:16PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	8%	-8%	-7%
No	100%	92%	+8%	+7%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 02:47PM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	24%	36%	-12%	-2%
No	76%	64%	+12%	+2%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

As of Oct 31, 2024 09:45PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 11:55PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	12%	+2%	+4%
No	86%	Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	88%	-2%	-4%

Io-Aurelius

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