Forecasted Questions
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
You quit this question on Apr 24, 2024 03:46PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Apr 24, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 9% | 1% | +8% | -4% |
No | 91% | 99% | -8% | +4% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
You quit this question on Jun 9, 2024 08:46PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jun 09, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 17% | 6% | +11% | -5% |
No | 83% | 94% | -11% | +5% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
You quit this question on Jul 24, 2024 06:17PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 19, 2024 07:25PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Jul 19, 2024 07:25PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +1% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
You quit this question on Jul 24, 2024 06:17PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 24, 2024 06:17PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Jul 24, 2024 06:17PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 100% | 99% | +1% | +1% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 17, 2024 04:44PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 17, 2024 04:44PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 9% | Aug 17, 2024 to Aug 17, 2025 | Nov 17, 2024 | 5% | +4% | +1% |
No | 91% | Aug 17, 2024 to Aug 17, 2025 | Nov 17, 2024 | 95% | -4% | -1% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 17, 2024 04:45PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 17, 2024 04:45PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 17, 2024 04:48PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 17, 2024 04:48PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 17, 2024 04:49PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 17, 2024 04:49PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 5% | -5% | -2% |
No | 100% | 95% | +5% | +2% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 18, 2024 08:29PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 18, 2024 08:29PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 0% | 3% | -3% | -1% |
Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
You quit this question on Aug 18, 2024 08:37PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 18, 2024 08:29PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 18, 2024 08:29PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |