RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 04, 2022 01:16PM UTC	How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?	-0.067426
Jan 04, 2022 01:10PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.002092
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	0.17348
Jan 03, 2022 01:41PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	0.0645
Jan 01, 2022 02:17PM UTC	Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?	-0.073211
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	-0.006371
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC	Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?	0.012961
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.014939
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.335414
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?	0.061906
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?	0.135681
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	0.00639
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	-0.0043
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	-0.00199
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM UTC	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.236668
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM UTC	When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?	-0.050465
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	0.007665
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	-0.002313
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	0.001906
Nov 16, 2021 02:24PM UTC	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?	0.051503

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