RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 09:41PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	16%	-13%	+5%
No	97%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	84%	+13%	-5%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 09:42PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 09:43PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	22%	+13%	-15%
No	65%	78%	-13%	+15%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 09:43PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 09:43PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 09:58PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	55%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	54%	+1%	-3%
No	45%	Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025	Oct 1, 2024	46%	-1%	+3%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2024 02:47PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	2%	9%	-7%	-2%
Su-35 fighter jets	2%	7%	-5%	-1%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2024 04:27PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	45%	44%	+1%	-1%
No	55%	56%	-1%	+1%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2024 04:31PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	11%	+4%	-2%
No	85%	89%	-4%	+2%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 05:16PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	25%	33%	-8%	+7%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	30%	40%	-10%	+0%

JJMLP

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