Already 20 casualties
0.367281
Relative Brier Score
321
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 26 | 335 | 321 | 2685 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 37 | 35 | 976 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 26 | 70 | 68 | 344 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 159 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
2%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
98%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
0%
(-15%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
50%
(-15%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
50%
(+30%)
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
updating
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
12%
(-2%)
30 days
0%
(-3%)
31-60 days
5%
(+3%)
61-90 days
8%
(+2%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
updating
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
very unlikely
Why might you be wrong?