My initial forecast was based on a 50% chance of a Trump election, and with that resolved, increasing.
Next factors to watch are any resolution in Ukraine that might open up troops for another offensive and the US' role in NATO.
-0.666013
Relative Brier Score
376
Forecasts
34
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 45 | 431 | 376 | 1084 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 345 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 30 | 70 | 54 | 168 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 40 | 34 | 179 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(+1%)
Estonia
1%
(+1%)
Latvia
1%
(+1%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
92%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Raising my forecast for Moldova, Armenia, and Georgia based on the US elections.