Confirmed previous forecast
-0.729153
Relative Brier Score
326
Forecasts
33
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 28 | 455 | 326 | 1034 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 83 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 28 | 73 | 53 | 167 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 10 | 52 | 33 | 178 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Coming down with time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Moldova
1%
(-1%)
Armenia
8%
(-7%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Updating forecast since Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory, halving the likelihood while Russia needs to commit troops to this region.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-6%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(-1%)
Odesa
Coming down with time, Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory, and the fast approaching rainy season.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
1%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files