My initial forecast was based on a 50% chance of a Trump election, and with that resolved, increasing.
Next factors to watch are any resolution in Ukraine that might open up troops for another offensive and the US' role in NATO.
0.560456
Relative Brier Score
224
Forecasts
34
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 45 | 431 | 376 | 1084 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 345 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 30 | 70 | 54 | 168 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 40 | 34 | 179 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(+1%)
Estonia
1%
(+1%)
Latvia
1%
(+1%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
92%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Raising my forecast for Moldova, Armenia, and Georgia based on the US elections.