Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
37
Forecasts
12
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 4 | 287 | 37 | 1137 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 31 | 17 | 370 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 4 | 45 | 16 | 169 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 38 | 12 | 195 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
4%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+2%)
Yes
95%
(-2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Coming up a bit with the US tariffs, I think this will cause the EGX to drop (along with every other global index). With the resolution based on a month over month drop, if we don't see it in April I think we can reduce the likelihood once again.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Egypt drew the scorn of the Trump administration, particularly toward the end of a month, we could see the EGX drop enough to resolve (even if it rebounds shortly after).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(+2%)
Moldova
3%
(+1%)
Armenia
7%
(+1%)
Georgia
1%
(+1%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing my probabilities across the board due to the likelihood of a cease fire in Ukraine and the opportunity to rearm and refocus, and the reduced likelihood of US response either militarily or economically.
This is tempered by the reduced likelihood that Russia will announce military action or that the UN Security Council will recognize such an event.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If success seems certain, I think we're more likely to see an announcement by Russia of military action, specifically to a domestic audience.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
I think that the real risk of this has increased, but I think the likelihood of resolution has dropped.
- I think that we're closer to some cease fire between Russia and Ukraine, which would allow Russia to rearm and focus on another theater.
- I think that US reaction to such an invasion has dropped.
But,
- I think the likelihood of Russia announcing an invasion has dropped since 2022, where they expected a quick victory. Lack of an announcement reduces the chance of triggering Article 5.
- I think that any UN Security Council Resolution will be only supported by the UK and France.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The dissolution or deprecation of NATO to such a point that Russia does not worry about retaliation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-10%)
Yes
85%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Coming down a bit with the trends between the companies, influence of Deepseek, and thoughts of tempering expectations in AI.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A strong US policy response against Deepseek, a new version of ChatGPT or other AI running on high end chips, or annoucements out of quarterly earnings.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 19, 2025 to Feb 19, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
Feb 19, 2025 to Feb 19, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on May 19, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 19, 2025 to Feb 19, 2026
89%
(0%)
No
Feb 19, 2025 to Feb 19, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files