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Jim

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM UTC When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD? 0.207554
Apr 15, 2022 01:10PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - May 2022 -0.114564
Apr 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022) -0.006145
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? -0.016611
Mar 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2022 -0.039402
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? 0.199411
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.291424
Feb 24, 2022 03:00PM UTC What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022? -0.000945
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) 0.003419
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021) 0.000253
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? -0.167524
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? -0.083394
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.124639
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021 0.043844
Jan 31, 2022 02:49PM UTC How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.138321
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM UTC How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.009786
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.002261
Jan 04, 2022 01:19PM UTC How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? -0.045013
Jan 04, 2022 01:16PM UTC How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? 0.153597
Jan 04, 2022 01:10PM UTC What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.004708
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