Jufda

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Forecasts 0 0 14 11 14
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New Badge
Jufda
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Microsoft and Apple seem more stable and have wider business.

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New Prediction
Jufda
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
96% (+8%)
Less than $90
4% (-8%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $120

85-87.5 in the last 9 days, and currently at 85.6.

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New Prediction
Jufda
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
88% (+13%)
Less than $90
12% (-13%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $120

Last seven days and there are a few dollars space before 90 is hit.

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New Prediction

9 months left now.

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New Prediction
Jufda
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
75% (-9%)
Less than $90
25% (+9%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $120

Destruction of some Russian oil refineries probably played major part in the recent price increase, but I'd imagine that it's now included in the price of ~87 and it's still quite unlikely to reach 90+ in 12 days.

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New Prediction
Jufda
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
84% (+10%)
Less than $90
16% (-10%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $120

81-84 USD for the past month, and 21 days left.

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New Prediction
Jufda
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
74% (-1%)
Less than $90
26% (+2%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0% (-1%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $120

The price is 82.5 USD now. The stableness of price in the recent months seems uncharacteristic for oil. The frequency of fast enough changes to rise over 90 USD seems to be around 1/4 based on a quick look at the graphs.

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New Prediction

Median forecast has dropped from 10 % to 8 % in 30 days, but there are still 10 months left.

Prohibiting Chinese from using USA-based cloud computing seems like a step towards direction that could end up Microsoft AI lab leaving China.

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New Badge
Jufda
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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