85-87.5 in the last 9 days, and currently at 85.6.
-0.011391
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 14 | 11 | 14 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
96%
(+8%)
Less than $90
4%
(-8%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
88%
(+13%)
Less than $90
12%
(-13%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Last seven days and there are a few dollars space before 90 is hit.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-1%)
Yes
91%
(+1%)
No
9 months left now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(-9%)
Less than $90
25%
(+9%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Destruction of some Russian oil refineries probably played major part in the recent price increase, but I'd imagine that it's now included in the price of ~87 and it's still quite unlikely to reach 90+ in 12 days.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
84%
(+10%)
Less than $90
16%
(-10%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
81-84 USD for the past month, and 21 days left.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
(-1%)
Less than $90
26%
(+2%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
The price is 82.5 USD now. The stableness of price in the recent months seems uncharacteristic for oil. The frequency of fast enough changes to rise over 90 USD seems to be around 1/4 based on a quick look at the graphs.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(+1%)
Yes
90%
(-1%)
No
Median forecast has dropped from 10 % to 8 % in 30 days, but there are still 10 months left.
Prohibiting Chinese from using USA-based cloud computing seems like a step towards direction that could end up Microsoft AI lab leaving China.
Files
Microsoft and Apple seem more stable and have wider business.