0.0
Relative Brier Score
43
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Definitions |
passage of time, Netanyahu still trying to prolong the war and being able to do so
Following DimaKlenchin and MrLittleTexas on this one
Why do you think you're right?
According to this great article
https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/
There have been 111 successful coups since 1950.
Thies yields a base rate of 75% for our timeframe. ((111/74)/2)
Countries that recently experienced coups (like Niger, Sudan, Mali, Gabon) are vulnerable to experience one again and rising extremist sentiment might also lift the risk further.
Sudan has historically experienced the most coups and I believe it's risk is still high.
I will therefore start slightly above the historical base rate and adjust according to developments.
Why might you be wrong?
Incentives are against it, and he is currently working on remaining in power.