Confirmed previous forecast
0.0
Relative Brier Score
43
Forecasts
13
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 43 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 06:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
67%
(-14%)
Yes
33%
(+14%)
No
passage of time, Netanyahu still trying to prolong the war and being able to do so
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 24%
1%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
21%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
78%
More than or equal to 28%
Following DimaKlenchin and MrLittleTexas on this one
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 29, 2024 08:10PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
82%
Yes
Aug 29, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
18%
No
Aug 29, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
According to this great article
https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/
There have been 111 successful coups since 1950.
Thies yields a base rate of 75% for our timeframe. ((111/74)/2)
Countries that recently experienced coups (like Niger, Sudan, Mali, Gabon) are vulnerable to experience one again and rising extremist sentiment might also lift the risk further.
Sudan has historically experienced the most coups and I believe it's risk is still high.
I will therefore start slightly above the historical base rate and adjust according to developments.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Sudden political stabilization in the region due to international intervention (maybe from former colonial powers but even Russians presence might help stabilize balance of power)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(+1%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(+1%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Incentives are against it, and he is currently working on remaining in power.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 29, 2024 01:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 29, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Aug 29, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
2%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files