Forecasted Questions
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:08PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 06:08PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 6% | -5% | -6% |
No | 99% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 94% | +5% | +6% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:08PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 06:08PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:08PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 06:08PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 4% | -2% | +0% |
No | 98% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 96% | +2% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:08PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 06:08PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
No | 99% | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:08PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 06:08PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 5% | 1% | +4% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 95% | 99% | -4% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:08PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 06:08PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Jan 29, 2025 | 0% | +2% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:09PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 06:09PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:10PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 06:10PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 20% | 11% | +9% | -2% |
No | 80% | 89% | -9% | +2% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:10PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 06:10PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 6% | 8% | -2% | +0% |
Armenia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Georgia | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 06:10PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 06:10PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 10% | 3% | +7% | +0% |
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 20% | 4% | +16% | +0% |
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 10% | 1% | +9% | +0% |
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |