RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 05:44AM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	6%	7%	-1%	+1%
Armenia	2%	2%	+0%	+1%
Georgia	2%	4%	-2%	+0%
Kazakhstan	2%	1%	+1%	+1%

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 05:47AM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	1%	2%	-1%	-1%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 04:42AM
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025	Mar 28, 2025 04:42AM	6%	-3%	+1%
No	97%	Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025	Mar 28, 2025 04:42AM	94%	+3%	-1%

Laura2021