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New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 28, 2025 04:42AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
97%
No
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Right now North Korea doesn´t want to look as agressive as it could look if these kind of tests are made
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be wrong if there would be an incident where Power needed to be shown
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-9%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1%
(-19%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(-9%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Why do you think you're right?
Very unlikely in the current situation...no conflicts right now if they can be avoided
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Venezuela has leaders that tend to react suddenly with violence
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
2%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
20%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
10%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files