Confirmed previous forecast
-0.210979
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 47 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Many countries enforce stringent guidelines for bioengineering, particularly when it involves pathogens. Engineering a pathogen capable of causing a pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic requires significant expertise. Random mutations or unintended consequences are possible but less likely to produce a highly transmissible and a biological event of high consequence.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Technologies have revolutionized genetic editing, enabling precise modifications to organisms. As bioengineering tools become cheaper and more widespread, the number of individuals and labs capable of conducting such work grows, raising the chance of error or misuse.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Everything is possible
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming the probability lower than 1%
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirming
Files
