Confirmed previous forecast
0.195584
Relative Brier Score
40
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 40 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Microelectronics,
Manufacturing
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Cromwellian 1%
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Nothing to suggest a change will happen in the next couple of days
Files
The situation has largely remained the same, just keep 1% (less than 1%) for any unexpected events