| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 10 | 36 | 188 | 188 | 188 |
| Comments | 6 | 12 | 129 | 129 | 129 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 4 | 56 | 56 | 56 |
| Definitions | |||||
lowering from 35% > 8%. Russia is retaliating due toUkraine's usage of atacam missiles into Russia, and Russia is threatening to use nuclear weapons in response. North Korea's antics (any nuclear test) would overshadow and take center stage and this is not what Russia desires (at the moment). (Remembering that North Korea now has a military pact with Russia).
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/world/europe/ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html
This depends on what happens with Russia and North Korea (US diplomacy after January).
Things are definitely ramping up - and N. Korea is in the mix (due to the military pact with Russia).
Biden authorizes Ukraine to strike Russia with U.S.-supplied long-range missiles
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/biden-authorized-ukraine-strike-russia-long-range-missiles-rcna180547
"Wicker’s and Turner’s offices said in statements that they had been asking the Biden administration to remove restrictions on the full use of ATACMS. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and President-elect Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., both criticized the decision, implying it could lead to World War III."
Russia launches one of its fiercest missile and drone attacks at Ukraine’s infrastructure
https://apnews.com/article/zelenskyy-russia-missiles-drones-ukraine-infrastructure-6af214839d9436731e9b960f0d3a7a8a
North Korean troops in Ukraine ‘grave escalation’, Scholz tells Putin
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75lxypz7wqo
Affirm
Regime change is one way the Supreme Leader may cease to exist in Iran, and another is falling gravely ill and dying. Rumors are circulating he is in a coma and his son has been secretly sworn in. The rumors increase the possibility Ali Khamenei will cease to be the Supreme Leader in the next year.
Increasing to 65% and staying briefed on the rumors, and waiting for a viable news site to inform.
Iran has secretly elected its next Supreme Leader as Khamenei plans to abdicate: Report
From September, 2024 - Ali Khamenei was extremely ill, NYT:
Iran’s Supreme Leader Cancels Public Appearances After Falling Ill
Interesting
https://www.wionews.com/world/amid-reports-of-khamenei-in-coma-iran-leaders-office-shares-his-pic-meeting-envoy-777054
Khamenei may have recovered from an illness in September and be walking around and well.
Lowering from 45%>35%, however the instability of the situation is viable. The new US administration has stated they will initiate "Maximum Pressure" on Iran and its nuclear program. How is this going to go? Iran states it is not willing to negotiate under aggressive pressure.
With both Israel and the USA teaming up to defeat Iran's efforts, a few things could happen 1) The nuclear program will be defeated, 2) Regime change in Iran 3) Oil exports will decrease even more.
Trump team aims to bankrupt Iran with new ‘maximum pressure’ plan
https://www.ft.com/content/3710bf14-010e-412d-83c7-b07773d6a45f
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“Attempting ‘Maximum Pressure 2.0’ will only result in ‘Maximum Defeat 2.0’,” he said on X, referring to Iran’s nuclear advances in the years since Trump abandoned the accord. “Better idea: try ‘Maximum Wisdom’ — for the benefit of all.” Iran’s new government, led by reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, has said it wants to re-engage with the west on the nuclear stand-off, in a bid to secure sanctions relief to boost the country’s ailing economy.
After holding talks with Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog in Tehran on Thursday, Araghchi posted on X that Tehran was willing to negotiate “based on our national interest & our inalienable rights, but NOT ready to negotiate under pressure and intimidation!”
Even if both sides are willing to talk, chances of progress are slim.
“The big question is whether Ayatollah Khamenei would be willing to do a nuclear and regional deal with the man who killed Qassem Soleimani,” said Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“It’s tough to envision a nuclear or regional deal that would be acceptable to both the prime minister of Israel and the supreme leader of Iran,” he added.
UN nuclear head to visit Iran for talks on country’s nuclear program as next Trump presidency looms
https://apnews.com/article/iaea-grossi-iran-nuclear-negotiations-efa8ad94a3424135eb21261cccaf4641
Elon Musk's meeting with Iranian official is sign Trump's tearing up traditional US diplomacy
Iran may strike a deal with the USA and allow the IAEA in to assess nuclear progress. Thus, averting "Maximum Pressure."
Affirming
Updating. With the assistance of North Korean troops, Russia may try a ground offensive to invade prior to 31 December. However, with Ukraine obtaining atacms missiles, Russia would most likely not conduct a land invasion.