95th

Accuracy Rank

LogicCurve

Karen Hagar

About:

I am a RAND Policy Analyst, V -Adjunct Defense and Political Sciences Department, a Pro Forecaster at RAND, an IARPA ACE Competition winner ( #2 Leader Board, circa 2011 - 13) and a 1st Generation Superforecaster® - Good Judgment Inc, circa 2013/14.

Active Forecaster

Power Forecaster - Nov 2025

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Forecasted Questions

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2025 06:16PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	95%	63%	+32%	-25%
No	5%	37%	-32%	+25%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2025 10:36PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	17%	-16%	-1%
No	99%	83%	+16%	+1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
39 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2025 10:38PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	1%	4%	-3%	-2%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2025 05:08PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	3%	-3%	+2%
No	100%	97%	+3%	-2%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2025 06:02PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
U.S. Entity	99%	81%	+18%	+1%
Non-U.S. Entity	85%	55%	+30%	-1%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 03:28PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	1%	-1%	-1%
No	100%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	99%	+1%	+1%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 03:28PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	99%	+0%	+1%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 03:28PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	85%	10%	+75%	+0%
No	15%	90%	-75%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 03:28PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	7%	+2%	+0%
No	91%	93%	-2%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 03:28PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	99%	+0%	+0%