Forecasted Questions
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:42PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 12:42PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 26% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 57% | -31% | +4% |
| No | 74% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 43% | +31% | -4% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 08, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Nov 8, 2024 to May 8, 2025 | Dec 8, 2024 | 7% | -4% | +2% |
| No | 97% | Nov 8, 2024 to May 8, 2025 | Dec 8, 2024 | 93% | +4% | -2% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 08:26PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 08, 2024 08:26PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 15% | 24% | -9% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 30% | 39% | -9% | +4% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 08:35PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 08, 2024 08:35PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 63% | 35% | +28% | -4% |
| No | 37% | 65% | -28% | +4% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 05:30PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 05:30PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 05:31PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 05:31PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 05:31PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 05:31PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 97% | -96% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 3% | +96% | +0% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 05:31PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 05:31PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 11:54AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 18, 2024 11:54AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 65% | Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025 | Feb 18, 2025 | 13% | +52% | +3% |
| No | 35% | Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025 | Feb 18, 2025 | 87% | -52% | -3% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(12 hours ago)
Nov 21, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(12 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025 | Dec 21, 2024 | 12% | -4% | -2% |
| No | 92% | Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025 | Dec 21, 2024 | 88% | +4% | +2% |