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Karen

About:

Anthropologist with a background in homeland security, Africa and the Middle East, USA border, catastrophic events/ ex threat. Subject matter expert: Human behavior, behavioral health, healthcare, culture/diversity, and policy. 1st Generation Superforecaster® circa 2013.

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Power Forecaster - Aug 2024

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Forecasted Questions

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2024 01:53PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	Sep 10, 2024 to Mar 10, 2025	Oct 10, 2024	54%	-29%	-1%
No	75%	Sep 10, 2024 to Mar 10, 2025	Oct 10, 2024	46%	+29%	+1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:02PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	2%	-1%	+1%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:03PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	15%	33%	-18%	+3%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	30%	40%	-10%	+1%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:03PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:05PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	18%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	16%	+2%	+6%
No	82%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	84%	-2%	-6%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:05PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	6%	-5%	-2%
No	99%	Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025	Oct 27, 2024	94%	+5%	+2%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:05PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:06PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	6%	4%	+2%	+0%
Kyiv	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
Odesa	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 08:06PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	96%	-95%	+0%
No	99%	4%	+95%	+0%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 06:59PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025	Oct 28, 2024	86%	-81%	+6%
No	95%	Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025	Oct 28, 2024	14%	+81%	-6%