LogicCurve

Since the question continues (for me) until March, 2026 - I remain at 20%; but leaning towards increasing.  Forecast Window “This question asks about the probability of an outcome occurring with the next year.  A forecast made today covers outcomes occurring before the end of Mar 25, 2026.  This question will stop accepting new forecasts on April 01, 2025 4:00 AM. "

If Iran responds in aggression to the Houthi attacks, there may be a counter response ...

Is Iran’s Regime About to Go the Way of Syria’s?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/25/iran-islamic-republic-syria-hard-base/

Iranian ex-officers to Israeli TV: Israel should bomb Khamenei’s home, help topple regime

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-ex-officers-to-israeli-tv-israel-should-bomb-khameneis-home-help-topple-regime/

No news Re: Nuclear testing; but this is interesting.

https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-nuclear-simulation-kim-jong-un-f9bc2d9f4fbcb9b5eaba339b441a02ad

Still looking for information the Wagner Group (Africa Corps) has been deployed to the DRC.  There is scant information they were there (see below), but there is also recent news that PMCs have left the DRC.  

As can be seen - this is an older article (2023)

Are white mercenaries fighting in the DRC conflict?
Simone Schlindwein
January 17, 2023
Western diplomats are deeply worried about the sudden appearance of Eastern European mercenaries in the volatile eastern Congo. Despite denials by Kinshasa, rumors abound that it hired the notorious Russian Wagner Group.

https://www.dw.com/en/are-white-mercenaries-fighting-in-the-drc-conflict/a-64407711

"Located on an unpaved side street near the international airport of Goma in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),the Hotel Mbiza usually caters to businesspeople or government delegations from the capital, Kinshasa. But since around Christmas of 2022, white military personnel from Eastern Europe have fully booked the hotel.

"There are dozens, maybe even a hundred white men in uniform," a local journalist said. He asked for anonymity for security reasons. "They wear a variety of uniforms with no national flags, and pistols on belts," he said.

The journalist added that soldiers of the Congolese presidential guard closely guarded the hotel entrance. They told him foreigners had booked all the rooms for an extended period. "It is now the headquarters of the whites," explained a soldier at the entrance, who refused to say more.

Diplomatic circles have been speculating for weeks on the meaning of the presence of these armed Eastern European men in Goma amid a new round of fighting in eastern DRC.The war erupted last spring after Tutsi rebels of the M23 (March 23 Movement) seized a vast swath of land along the border with neighboring Rwanda and Uganda.

Congo's army has been incurring heavy losses in the fighting. The presence of white armed men at the Mbiza Hotel sparked rumors that the government had hired the notorious Russian mercenary Wagner Group to help fight the rebels.