I lowered the forecast for "yes" a few points, but I think the forecasters are underestimating how aggressive China is with mindset and subsequent activities. Agreed that the USA is trying to thwart China from building a base in Gabon. But, China is not easily deterred from doing what it wants. They have multifarious infrastructure building activities and projects lined up with China, and investment of many billions. They are planning on conducting military operations and training with and for African countries.
The article below provides info, pulling out some highlights:
"Chinese President Xi Jinping met individually with thirty-six African delegations: from Botswana, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Liberia, Libya, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe."
[...]
"Expansion of the Global Security Initiative: In a speech at FOCAC, Xi also announced new security commitments on the continent via the Global Security Initiative, one of the country’s newer frameworks aimed at increasing its influence in the global security architecture. In Africa specifically, China’s president promised to provide training for six thousand military personnel and one thousand law enforcement officers, invite African military officers to China, increase joint military exercises, coordinate with African partners to provide security for joint projects, and offer grants in military assistance.
"An Atlantic Naval Base: Amid speculation that China is seeking to build an Atlantic naval base on Gabon’s coast, China and Gabon also signed multiple bilateral agreements to fund public infrastructure projects during FOCAC. Several experts have highlighted the growing U.S.-China security competition occurring on Africa’s Atlantic coast. Reports suggest the United States is working to prevent any potential base, with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell warning Gabon’s interim President Brice Oligui Nguema in July that a proposed Chinese military training facility in the country would risk an encroaching presence from Chinese forces, as well as reports that the United States has put together a $5 million security assistance package for Gabon ahead of a visit from Nguema to Washington, DC, in the fall."
[...]
"Infrastructure Commitments: Among the dozens of new projects and agreements announced at FOCAC, the largest were aimed at Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Several agreements provided funds to complete rail and highway projects, including funding for the Lagos-Calabar railway in Nigeria, extending Kenya’s Standard Guage Railway and fifteen road construction projects, a high-speed rail project in Morocco, and signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Tanzania and Zambia to revitalize the TAZARA railway line.
[...]
"Zambia’s President Hakainde Hichilema signed three MoU with China’s state power company, Power China, and an agreement with Chinese firm Datang to invest in and construct a two-hundred-twenty-megawatt renewable energy project, in addition to building two solar plants in the country. Power China also agreed to support expanded rooftop solar panel use in Zambia. Benin, Burundi, the Republic of Congo, Seychelles, and Zimbabwe all signed agreements to engage in (as yet unspecified) Belt and Road Initiative projects."
From September 27, 2024:
China in Africa: September 2024
https://www.cfr.org/article/china-africa-september-2024
Staying low due to the logistics of "declaration," aspects of the question criteria (and the fact this is a continued war). However "new front" is questionable. (Read more below).
Israel is going to engage in a "limited ground invasion." I believe the terminology of "limited" is a purposeful descriptor - as it delineates this is not an all-out-war, but one that has objectives and goals and a stopping point.
Israel's Defence Minister has stated "I believe we are at the start of a new phase in the war." Which verbiage of reveals this is not a new war, but the same war Israel has already been involved in.
However, the "more details" section of the question's resolution criteria informs the question will close as "yes" if there is a "new front." The information from Google AI, and wikipedia provide multiple situations that describe "front." So, it is uncertain if a ground incursion into Lebanon as a "new phase" is the same thing as a "new front."
Israeli defence minister announces 'new phase in war' moving north
https://youtu.be/DKGomxrrkxM?si=HmoImD4MsrBDfSD_
Front (military)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_(military)#cite_note-DOD-1
It is already been stated Israel is now fighting battles on "3 fronts" and the question hasn't closed, so it appears that this is all the same war towards multiple Iranian proxies with different gang names.
Global National: Sept. 29, 2024 | Middle East conflict grows to 3rd front as Israel strikes Houthis
https://youtu.be/YT_V6rqnuj8?si=0bJbeRAKLWUjseXm