LogicCurve

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Forecasts 4 38 190 190 190
Comments 4 14 131 131 131
Questions Forecasted 3 13 15 15 15
Upvotes on Comments By This User 3 5 57 57 57
 Definitions
New Prediction
LogicCurve
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8% (0%)
Yes
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
92% (0%)
No
Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

DPRK may have the capability to use their former nuclear test site (some reports advise).  They collapsed the tunnels when a diplomatic agreement was reached and did this in good faith in efforts towards denuclearization.  However, now the DPRK gov is informing that deal is now off the table.   

Reuters informs (2022) "North Korea appears to be "restoring" its Punggye-ri nuclear test site, South Korea has said, with signs of new construction spotted in satellite imagery for the first time since it was shuttered in 2018.

North Korea has not tested a nuclear bomb since 2017, but it has suggested it could resume such testing because denuclearisation talks with the United States and its allies remain stalled."

[...]

"The main mountain is unlikely to be usable for new tests, but other nearby mountains could be used, ISIS said in a 2018 report. North Korea could also conduct new tests at an entirely different location."

[...]

"The closing did not affect North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal or its capability to make nuclear weapons, but the lack of testing could inhibit its ability to field reliable, deliverable thermonuclear warheads, according to the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington (ISIS).

The main mountain is unlikely to be usable for new tests, but other nearby mountains could be used, ISIS said in a 2018 report. North Korea could also conduct new tests at an entirely different location.

North Korea appears to be restoring its dismantled nuclear test site. (2022)

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nkorea-appears-be-restoring-its-dismantled-nuclear-test-site-2022-03-15/


Files
Why might you be wrong?

DPRK may conduct nuclear tests in a new area.  While there is a lot of strategic political jostling and saber-rattling going on, if N Korea wants a viable nuclear weapon, they may need to conduct more tests to ensure their weapon will be accurate.  

Files
LogicCurve
made a comment:

Thanks @cmeinel ,  that's interesting research indeed.   Focusing on whether N Korea will (or will not) conduct a test, in my opinion - if they want to they will find a way, even if at another location "The main mountain is unlikely to be usable for new tests, but other nearby mountains could be used, ISIS said in a 2018 report. North Korea could also conduct new tests at an entirely different location (Reuters)."   

However, I find the political strategy of Russia and now also including N Korea (Russia/N Korea military pact) to be more compelling as to whether N Korea will conduct a test.  They will probably need to field this through The Duma, aka Putin.  The current political environment between Ukraine & Russia involves the atacms (Ukraine)  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2nrlq1840o and RS-26, an "experimental" intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) (Russia), with Russia's threat of nuclear weapon usage on the table.   https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-russian-missile-and-why-it-matters-ukraine-nato/

At this current juncture, I doubt Putin will want to be upstaged by a N Korean nuclear test (that would definitely rattle the world).  That would be stealing Russia's thunder.  Unless of course,  Russia somehow desires to hide behind the crazy man from N Korea to do its dirty work.    It doesn't seem to be in Russia's best interest to agree to N Korea's nuclear test; but that may change if they desire to scare NATO and the world more. 

Files
New Prediction

I asked for a clarification regarding chip size, based on this information below:

China Advances in Semiconductor Lithography

https://abachy.com/news/china-advances-semiconductor-lithography#:~:text=For%20instance%2C%20ASML's%201980i%20system%20is%20capable,from%20producing%20chips%20smaller%20than%2065nm%20effectively.

"Analysts highlight that while these tools represent progress, they still cannot reach the complexities and precision of advanced systems like ASML's immersion DUV machines. For instance, ASML’s 1980i system is capable of producing chips at the 10nm scale with a DCO of less than 1.6nm for full wafer coverage, supporting a significantly higher level of efficiency and output (processing up to 275 wafers per hour). In contrast, the Chinese machines likely adhere to the limited DCO capabilities, which would restrict them from producing chips smaller than 65nm effectively."

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New Prediction

Updating.  With the assistance of North Korean troops, Russia may try a ground offensive to invade prior to 31 December.  However, with Ukraine obtaining atacms missiles, Russia would most likely not conduct a land invasion. 

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New Prediction
LogicCurve
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8% (-27%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
92% (+27%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

lowering from 35% > 8%.  Russia is retaliating due toUkraine's usage of atacam missiles into Russia, and Russia is threatening to use nuclear weapons in response.   North Korea's antics (any nuclear test) would overshadow and take center stage and this is not what Russia desires (at the moment).  (Remembering that North Korea now has a military pact with Russia).  


 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/world/europe/ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html


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Why might you be wrong?

This depends on what happens with Russia and North Korea (US diplomacy after January).   

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New Comment

Things are definitely ramping up - and N. Korea is in the mix (due to the military pact with Russia). 

Biden authorizes Ukraine to strike Russia with U.S.-supplied long-range missiles

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/biden-authorized-ukraine-strike-russia-long-range-missiles-rcna180547

"Wicker’s and Turner’s offices said in statements that they had been asking the Biden administration to remove restrictions on the full use of ATACMS.  Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and President-elect Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., both criticized the decision, implying it could lead to World War III."


Russia launches one of its fiercest missile and drone attacks at Ukraine’s infrastructure

https://apnews.com/article/zelenskyy-russia-missiles-drones-ukraine-infrastructure-6af214839d9436731e9b960f0d3a7a8a


North Korean troops in Ukraine ‘grave escalation’, Scholz tells Putin

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75lxypz7wqo


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New Prediction
LogicCurve
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35% (0%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
65% (0%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025

Affirm

Files
New Prediction
LogicCurve
made their 16th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
65% (+30%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025
35% (-30%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Regime change is one way the Supreme Leader may cease to exist in Iran, and another is falling gravely ill and dying.   Rumors are circulating he is in a coma and his son has been secretly sworn in.   The rumors increase the possibility Ali Khamenei will cease to be the Supreme Leader in the next year.  

Increasing to 65% and staying briefed on the rumors, and waiting for a viable news site to inform. 


Iran has secretly elected its next Supreme Leader as Khamenei plans to abdicate: Report

https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2024/11/17/iran-has-secretly-elected-its-next-supreme-leader-report.html

From September, 2024 - Ali Khamenei was extremely ill, NYT:

Iran’s Supreme Leader Cancels Public Appearances After Falling Ill

http://archive.today/2024.07.29-210347/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/world/middleeast/irans-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-ill.html


Interesting 

https://www.wionews.com/world/amid-reports-of-khamenei-in-coma-iran-leaders-office-shares-his-pic-meeting-envoy-777054


https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-publishes-picture-of-supreme-leader-ayatollah-khamenei-after-reports-he-was-in-coma/

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Khamenei may have recovered from an illness in September and be walking around and well.  

Files
New Prediction
LogicCurve
made their 15th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35% (-10%)
Yes
Nov 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2025
65% (+10%)
No
Nov 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Lowering from 45%>35%, however the instability of the situation is viable.  The new US administration has stated they will initiate "Maximum Pressure" on Iran and its nuclear program.  How is this going to go?  Iran states it is not willing to negotiate under aggressive pressure.  

With both Israel and the USA teaming up to defeat Iran's efforts, a few things could happen 1) The nuclear program will be defeated,  2) Regime change in Iran 3) Oil exports will decrease even more. 



Trump team aims to bankrupt Iran with new ‘maximum pressure’ plan

https://www.ft.com/content/3710bf14-010e-412d-83c7-b07773d6a45f


 Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. 

 “Attempting ‘Maximum Pressure 2.0’ will only result in ‘Maximum Defeat 2.0’,” he said on X, referring to Iran’s nuclear advances in the years since Trump abandoned the accord. “Better idea: try ‘Maximum Wisdom’ — for the benefit of all.”  Iran’s new government, led by reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, has said it wants to re-engage with the west on the nuclear stand-off, in a bid to secure sanctions relief to boost the country’s ailing economy.

After holding talks with Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog in Tehran on Thursday, Araghchi posted on X that Tehran was willing to negotiate “based on our national interest & our inalienable rights, but NOT ready to negotiate under pressure and intimidation!”

Even if both sides are willing to talk, chances of progress are slim.

“The big question is whether Ayatollah Khamenei would be willing to do a nuclear and regional deal with the man who killed Qassem Soleimani,” said Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“It’s tough to envision a nuclear or regional deal that would be acceptable to both the prime minister of Israel and the supreme leader of Iran,” he added.


UN nuclear head to visit Iran for talks on country’s nuclear program as next Trump presidency looms

https://apnews.com/article/iaea-grossi-iran-nuclear-negotiations-efa8ad94a3424135eb21261cccaf4641


Elon Musk's meeting with Iranian official is sign Trump's tearing up traditional US diplomacy

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/elon-musk-meeting-iran-sign-trump-tearing-traditional-us-diplomacy


Files
Why might you be wrong?

Iran may strike a deal with the USA and allow the IAEA in to assess  nuclear progress. Thus, averting "Maximum Pressure." 

Files
New Prediction
LogicCurve
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
LogicCurve
made their 21st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Yes
99% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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