RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 05:16PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	11%	-8%	-3%
No	97%	89%	+8%	+3%

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 05:17PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	-2%
No	98%	95%	+3%	+2%

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 05:18PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	21%	+19%	-16%
No	60%	79%	-19%	+16%

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 05:19PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025	Oct 6, 2024	41%	-31%	+31%
No	90%	Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025	Oct 6, 2024	59%	+31%	-31%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 05:21PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	10%	32%	-22%	+3%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	10%	39%	-29%	-8%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 05:23PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	2%	-1%	+1%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

MD